Gadgil, Sulochana and Rajeevan, M and Francis, PA (2007) Monsoon variability: Links to major oscillations over the equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans. In: Current Science, 93 (2). pp. 182-194.
In this article, we first discuss our perception of the factors which are critical for inter-annual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the major milestones leading to this understanding. The nature of the two critical modes for monsoon variability, viz. El Nino Southern Oscillation and equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation is considered and their links to the monsoon elucidated. We suggest possible reasons for the rather poor skill of simulation of the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by atmospheric general circulation models, run with the observed sea surface temperature as boundary condition. We discuss implications of what we have learned for the monsoon of 2006, and possible use of information on the two important modes for prediction of the rainfall in all or part of the summer monsoon season. We conclude with our view of what the focus of research and development should be for achieving a substantial improvement in the skill of simulation and prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the near future.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Additional Information:||Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.|
|Keywords:||El Nino Southern Oscillation;Indian monsoon;monsoon variability;Indian Ocean.|
|Department/Centre:||Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences|
|Date Deposited:||29 Jul 2008|
|Last Modified:||19 Sep 2010 04:48|
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