A combination of differential equations and convolution in understanding the spread of an epidemic

Rao, Arni SR Srinivasa and Kakehashi, Masayuki (2004) A combination of differential equations and convolution in understanding the spread of an epidemic. In: Sadhana, 29 (3). pp. 305-313.

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Abstract

Nonlinear dynamical method of projecting the transmission of an epidemic is accurate if the input parameters and initial value variables are reliable. Here, such a model is proposed for predicting an epidemic.A method to supplement two variables and two parameters for this proposed model is demonstrated through a robust statistical approach. The method described here worked well in case of three continuous distributions. Model predictions could be lower estimates due to under-reporting of disease cases. An ad hoc procedure with a technical note is provided in the appendix.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Additional Information:	Copyright for this article belongs to Indain Academy of Sciences.
Keywords:	Dynamical model;likelihood;convolution;HIV
Department/Centre:	Division of Biological Sciences > Centre for Ecological Sciences
Date Deposited:	11 Jan 2005
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2010 04:17
URI:	http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/id/eprint/2629

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