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Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

Gadgil, Sulochana and Rao, Sheshagiri PR and Joshi, NV and Sridhar, S (1995) Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough. In: Current Science (Bangalore), 68 (3). pp. 301-309.

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Official URL: http://www.ias.ac.in/j_archive/currsci/68/vol68con...

Abstract

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited: 18 May 2011 07:50
Last Modified: 18 May 2011 07:50
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/id/eprint/37750

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