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Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks

Goswami, BN and Xavier, Prince K (2003) Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. In: Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (18). ASC9-1.

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Abstract

Extended range prediction (two to three weeks in advance) of Indian summer monsoon active (rainy) and break (dry) phases are of great importance for agricultural planning and water management. Using daily rainfall and circulation data for 23 years, a fundamental property of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) is discovered and shown that the potential predictability limit (~20 days) of monsoon breaks is significantly higher than that for active conditions (~10 days). An empirical model for prediction of monsoon ISO's is then constructed and feasibility of useful prediction of monsoon breaks up to 18 days in advance is demonstrated.

Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: The copyright belongs to American Geophysical Union.
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited: 31 May 2006
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2008 12:05
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/id/eprint/7187

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